---Volume Surges as All Eyes Turn to Forex---

Everyone has heard the cliche that currency markets are the most viable because there’s no such thing as a bear market; a decline in one currency must necessarily be offset by a rise in at least one other currency. This truism has taken on a new significance in the context of the credit crisis, where sell-offs in virtually every other asset class has sent investors scrambling in search of yield. Despite even the current rally in stocks and commodities, forex volume is surging.

Aggregate forex data is essentially nonexistent, and also unreliable since its based on surveys rather than actual numbers. But anecdotal evidence from the major players in forex suggests that interest has exploded. “Volumes on dbFX, the online retail trading platform from Deutsche Bank, increased 37% in the first quarter of 2009 from the same period a year earlier. ….particularly impressive given sharp volume gains in October, at the height of market fears, when retail investor interest spiked due to intensified volatility.”

Ironically, the increase in retail forex trading has coincided with a relative decline in institutional trading, as banks collectively make an effort to get back to their roots of providing financial services and move away from position-taking. “The crisis has also led many houses to disable algorithmic trading models, which had been big volume drivers.”

Japanese retirees were probably the first, or at least the most famous, mainstream group to trade in the currency markets. They famously used the carry trade to bet against the Yen. When this strategy imploded, it was left to investors from other countries to pick up the slack. “Contracts for Difference (CFD) providers [in Australia] are noticing the shift. Many newcomers to CFDs, they say, are overlooking margin trading over shares for the prospect of trading currencies instead.”

Equity traders are also starting to pay attention to forex. The Dollar’s recent volatility has effected significant changes in corporate profitability. For companies that are export-oriented and/or are net buyers of commodities, the strong Dollar has provided a windfall. One analyst added, “Travel and leisure companies will also benefit from the weak dollar as this means that travel is now more affordable for foreigners.” If and when the Dollar recovers, companies that do business overseas are poised to reap the benefit.

For novice forex traders, the most important decision involves choosing a trading approach; “The type of forex trader you are will determine how frequently you trade, the type of currency pairs you choose to trade, the charts you use, and even the strategies that you employ to make money on the markets.” Generally speaking, day traders churn their portfolios daily, and hence stick to the most volatile currency pairs. Swing traders typically hold positions from one day to several weeks, and rely on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.

Position traders, in contrast, don’t worry about “short-term market movements like the day trader or swing trader, but about long-term trends spanning weeks or months.” These types of traders, as well as those who aren’t ready to take the plunge directly into forex, should also consider currency ETFs, currency options, and currency CDs. As one instructor summarized, “The upside to these is that you can get started in currencies right through the same stock brokerage account that you would buy IBM, GE or Google.”

Investors Bullish On Canadian Loonie Despite Record Interest Rate Cut

Today, the Bank of Canada followed up on an earlier promise by formally clarifying its position on quantitative easing. Suffice to say that the markets breathed a huge sigh of relief when it was revealed that the BOC was not committing itself to such a program. ” ‘The market has always had great trepidation about the idea of printing money…As the Bank of Canada has pushed back at that notion, the Canadian dollar is having a little party of its own,’ ” quipped one analyst.

In other words, the BOC would like to avoid following in the footsteps of its counterparts in the US, UK, Japan, and perhaps the EU, by pumping newly-minted money directly into credit and government bind markets. At the same time, the Bank admitted that a rapid deterioration in the Canadian economy would certainly prompt it to reconsider. Governor Mark Carney et al have approached the subject of quantitative easing coyly. On the one hand, today’s report (as well as the BOC website) contain detailed explanations of what quantitative easing would hypothetically entail. On the other hand, they insist that such a scenario does not fit with their economic projections, and hence remains unlikely. “The need to do extraordinary easing is a ‘big if,’ ” in the words of Governor Carney.

This is largely consistent with analysts’ expectations, one of whom had predicted that “it’s also quite possible the bank could simply lay out a framework on Thursday and not take any action at all.” Even ignoring the inflationary implications of quantitative easing, it’s not clear whether such a policy could even be effective. “The corporate bond market is reviving, with spreads narrowing and issuance levels improving, raising the question of whether central bank involvement is necessary or appropriate in a market that seems to be healing itself.” Granted, most investors are now wearing their rose-tinted glasses, but the data speaks for itself.

The BOC’s estimation that it can avoid quantitative easing is somewhat dubious, since it is predicated on overly optimistic economic forecasts, as well as because it has already exhausted the primary tool in its monetary arsenal. Earlier this week, it lowered interested rates to a record low of .25%, capping a 16-month period of easing, during which it slashed rates by 4.25%. By the Bank’s own reckoning, interest rates will remain low until mid-2010, as inflation is now comfortably within the target range of 1-3%.

Given the abysmal economic situation, it is no surprise that inflation has moderated. Commodity prices are well below the record highs of 2008. Aggregate demand, and GDP by extension, are retreating in kind. According to one economist, ” ‘When you do that math, no matter how optimistic you are, you are talking about a time frame of years before things like the unemployment rate (are) back down to historically normal levels.’ ”

Still, traders remain bullish on the Loonie. “Since March 9, the loonie has climbed 6.2 percent…The loonie will appreciate to C$1.19 by the end of March next year, according to the median forecast of 38 economists and analysts in a Bloomberg survey.” As the Forex Blog reported in yesterday’s post, the carry trade has returned, which is good news for commodity currencies, low interest rates are not. Meanwhile, low interest rates could stimulate corporate borrowing and home buying. Given the Central Bank’s reluctance to print money, the economic recovery would even unfold without the drag of inflation. Maybe the excitement is justified…

---Thai Baht Continues to Slide, but Unaffected by Political Turmoil---

The value of the Thai Baht continues to erode, and the currency has now fallen 10% in the last year. It recently touched a two-year low against the Dollar. Weighing primarily on the Baht is the global economic crisis, so it is hardly unique in this regard. “The government has forecast the economy will contract by 3% this year, which would be the first time it has shrunk in more than a decade.”

Thailand’s economy is heavily reliant on exports, a category which also includes tourism. “The tourism council forecast revenue for the industry this year could drop 35 percent to only 350 billion baht in 2008,” and “The commerce ministry announced that Thai exports fell by 23.1 percent in March year-on-year, the fifth consecutive month of decline.” This is certainly the worst economic crisis to hit since the 1997 Southeast Asian economic crisis, but the country is in much stronger shape this time around. ” ‘Both at the national government level and in the private sector, the balance sheets are much stronger.’ ” As a result, Thailand has thus far managed to stave off a run on its currency, even despite a decline in investment- both direct and speculative. The Thai stock market is sagging; according to one commentator, “Fund flows could continue to drag the market down as we see profit-taking in this region.”

The government and the Central Bank are working in tandem to relieve the situation, but there isn’t much optimism surrounding their efforts. The Minister of Finance recently announced an (attempted) expansion of Thailand’s own version of an economic stimulus plan, to $40 Billion. Funding will be provided for “investment projects in a wide range of industries such as logistics, agriculture and energy. The Bank of Thailand recently slashes rates to 1.25%, tying a record low that was set in 2003.

However, “The decision to cut the rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent came as more than 40,000 protesters seeking to oust the government were massed in the capital Bangkok.” The political unrest in Thailand is old news at this point. It began over a year ago when then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a military coup. Since then, there have been an unending series of protests and counter-protests aimed at keeping him out or bringing him back. Basically, no one is happy with the current situation, but still there are no signs of political change. The Prime Minister has refused requests to resign, and Thaksin remains in exile outside the country.

The political uncertainty isn’t really weighing on the Baht, but one analyst warns this could change: “The baht is likely to underperform in the near term due to political tensions, which have prevented the government from undertaking aggressive fiscal stimulus.” In other words, while tourism has been impacted by the protests, the biggest problem is that the government is being hamstrung in its efforts to forge a strong response to the economic crisis.

---Euro Resumes Decline After Brief Pause---

The one-year chart of the EUR/USD depicts a general downward trend, punctuated with steep “blips.” Every couple of months or so, it seems traders are temporarily jarred loose from their mindset of Euro bearishness, and find an excuse to bid up the common currency. Invariably, the Euro then resumes its downward course a few weeks later.

The Euro’s recent trading activity fits this mold perfectly. The global stock market rally in March was accompanied by a spike in the Euro. While equities, commodities, and even other currencies continued to rise, however, the Euro peaked after a couple weeks and has since hovered around the $1.30 mark. As one currency strategist summarized: “A breakdown of the correlation between the euro-dollar exchange rate and the S&P index indicates the currency pair ‘ has become a trade that is less about risk, a little more about euro rate specifics.’ ”

In other words, the decline in risk aversion has not expanded to include the Euro. This is somewhat surprising, since EU economic indicators have rebounded in the last month. The oft-cited German IFO index “rebounded from a 26-year low,” while “retail sales declined the least in 11 months in April after government stimulus packages improved consumer confidence.” On the other hand, EU lending activity, which is more correlated with economic growth, continues to decline. “The European Central Bank Wednesday released figures showing that banks in the currency area cut their lending to both companies and households in March.”

This is a huge problem for the EU, where the banking sector represents a comparatively important component of the economy.. “At the end of 2007, the stock of outstanding bank loans to the private sector amounted to around 145 percent of gross domestic product, compared to 63 percent in the United States.” This is belied by newspaper headlines that maintain the banking crisis is most severe in the US. In nominal terms, this might be true, but in relative terms, the EU is in much worse shape. Given that exchange rates are all relative, it is worth paying attention to this phenomenon.

The ECB is doing all that it can to help the situation, but many analysts and even some of the Bank’s own members remain critical. “The ambiguity of the ECB’s stance is not helping [the Euro," offered one analyst. The ECB's next meeting is scheduled for May 7, when economists predict the benchmark lending rate will be lowered to 1%. This will appease some investors, but not all. The head of Germany's IFO organization, for instance, has urged the ECB to slash rates down to .25%.

As ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has pointed out, lower rates will not automatically stimulate the economy: "Owing in particular to the very low rate on our deposit facility of 0.25 percent, this difference in policy rates doesn’t translate into equivalent differences in money market rates." In fact, money market rates have largely converged across the EU and US, despite the divergence in short-term rates, vindicating Trichet.

More important, then is the ECB's non-monetary initiatives. To quote Trichet again, "Comparing only the levels of policy rates without consideration of the resulting market rates and other economic variables is looking at just one part of a far broader canvas." The Economist recently published an excellent comparison of the various Central Banks' responses to the credit crisis. While some have embraced their newfound prominence, other Central Banks have shied from the spotlight, insisting that their mandates are limited to inflation targeting. The ECB probably falls into this category, as it has thus far stood on the sidelines - for better or worse- as its counterparts have turned on the printing presses and flooded their respective credit markets with liquidity. [Chart courtesy of The Economist].

This could soon change, and “A commission headed by Jacques de Larosière, a former head of both the Bank of France and the IMF, has recommended that the ECB chair a new European Systemic Risk Council made up of its member central banks and supervisors.” Not all investors are convinced that the ECB can successfully break with tradition. “Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities…recommends investors sell the euro on ‘upticks’ as the ECB abandons ‘monetary orthodoxy’ and uses unconventional measures to spur growth.”

---China’s Gold Holdings Surge 76% over Six Years---

Based on the title, you’re probably groaning: ‘Wait, I thought this was supposed to be a forex blog?” Bear with me, however, as this subject is extremely pertinent to forex.

Last week, it was revealed that China has been clandestinely adding to its gold reserves since 2003, to the extent that its holdings increased by 76%, to approximately 1,050 tons. The news initially sent a ripple through forex and commodities markets, which were overwhelmed by the figures involved. After analysts had a chance to gather some perspective, however, the markets relaxed. You see, although the increase seems tremendous in size, it is quite small in relative terms.

It is relatively small compared to other countries: “This places China fifth in the world, ahead of Switzerland’s 1040 tons but behind the U.S. ranked first with 8,133 tons, followed by Germany (3,412 tons), France (2,508 tons) and Italy (2,451 tons).”

It is relatively small given the six-year duration of accumulation: “I think as soon as people realized it’s not a year-on-year increase, or a quarter-on-quarter increase, people realized it should not have that big an impact.”

It is small relative to China’s mammoth $2 Trillion forex reserves: “As a proportion of foreign exchange reserves, which have risen five-fold over the same period, gold now stands at a tiny 1.6 percent, versus 1.7 percent in 2003.”

On some level, the development has at least some symbolic importance, as it demonstrates that it cannot be taken for granted that China will simply continue to plow its (dwindling) trade surplus into Dollar-denominated securities, or even currencies in general. This is underscored by the suspicious timing of the announcement; China essentially waited six years before revealing its buildup in gold, probably in order to coincide with the uproar surrounding the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency. In other words, even though China’s gold purchases in and of themselves don’t amount to much, the Central Bank of China is trying to send a message that it will defend itself against “the depreciation risk of some foreign currencies.”

The announcement also explains the recent buoyancy of gold prices. Historically, there existed an inverse correlation between gold and the Dollar. This correlation has all but broken down as a result of the credit crisis, and for the first time a strong Dollar has been accompanied by high gold prices. Part of the reason may be increased buying activity by Central Banks, including the Bank of China: “The physical market remained well-bid by an unknown buyer despite bullion prices spiking to levels that normally cooled demand…Purchases were made in Shanghai, traders said, in an effort to absorb domestic production and lessen the impact of bullion prices on global markets.”

---Euro Continues to Rise, but Technical Obstacles Exist---

Over the last couple months, the Euro has thoroughly outperformed the Dollar, which recently fell to a five-month low on a trade-weighted basis. Over the same period, global stock and commodity prices have also risen quickly, which is not a coincidence.
In other words, investors are allocating capital on the basis of risk, rather than in accordance with (economic) fundamentals. For example, “ICE’s Dollar Index and crude oil have a correlation of minus 0.61 in the past two months, compared with minus 0.26 since the start of the year,” as rising oil prices and the declining Dollar feed back into each other.

Meanwhile, “Implied volatility on major currencies, which reflects investors’ expectations of currency swings, fell to 13.96 percent yesterday, from…17.22 percent at the end of March. A drop in volatility tends to signal less demand for options to protect investors from currency swings.” This indicator is now at its lowest level since the days preceding the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent stock market collapse. One would normally expect a correlation between risk and return, but in this case, rising returns have been accompanied by lower risk.

Even more unbelievable is that this decline in risk is taking place against the backdrop of declining economic fundamentals. “Risk appetite in the currency market is nothing short of impressive considering the fact that the Fed reduced their growth forecasts,” said one analyst. However, “The euro-area economy will contract 4.2 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, more than the projected 2.8 percent contraction in the U.S. and 4.1 percent slump in the U.K.” If investors were focusing on this divergence in economic growth, one would expect the Euro would be falling.

One hypothesis is that inflation-conscious traders are flocking to the Euro, since the ECB remains vigilant about fighting inflation, even in the face of declining prices and aggregate demand. After cutting rates to a record low 1% earlier this month, the ECB unveiled its own version of a quantitative easing plan, involving the purchase of 60 billion euros worth of low risk securities. But this is a pittance, both relative to the size of the EU economy (it represents a mere .6% of GDP) and compared to the Trillion Dollar Fed program. This led one analyst to call the ECB’s plan “chicken feed.” While all of this is noteworthy, it’s unlikely that this is having a meaningful effect on forex markets, which still remain focused on (avoiding) deflation.

If the Euro is to continue rising, it must overcome some technical obstacles. “The euro could hit a ceiling if the recent resilience of U.S. stock markets faces headwinds. ‘At some point…stronger nongovernment growth has to show up to sustain and justify these moves in equities.’ ” It’s interesting that the fear of Euro bulls is not that the EU economy won’t recover, but rather that US stock prices are overvalued. Given recent market movements, however, their concerns are reasonable, and “any disappointment [in corporate fundamentals] could provide an excuse to take profit [this] week — benefiting the dollar.”

Asian Currencies Rally for Third Straight Month

According to a recent Reuters poll, investors are increasingly bullish on emerging market Asian currencies, including the Taiwan dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Indian rupee. The Thai Baht wasn’t covered by the poll, but given its strong performance over the last few months, it seems safe to include it in the bunch.

This uptick in sentiment is somewhat unspectacular, since “The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the 10 most-active regional currencies,” has now risen for almost three consecutive months [See chart below]. Leading the pack are the Taiwan Dollar and South Korean Won, which recently touched five-month and seven-month highs, respectively. “The Korean currency has climbed 28 percent since reaching an 11-year low of 1,597.45 in March.”

Investors are now pouring money back into Asia at rapid clip. “Asia ex-Japan received $933 million in the week ended May 20, the most among emerging-market stock funds, bringing the total this year to $6.9 billion.” Meanwhile, the “The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional stocks climbed 22 percent this quarter” while Chinese stocks are up 45% since the beginning of 2009.

But it’s unclear - doubtful is a better word - whether this rally is supported by economic fundamentals. One commentator summarized this contradiction as follows: “Improved sentiment has led to a massive resurgence in flows to emerging markets, irrespective of the underlying data, which remains weak. Investors are going out of dollars to riskier markets, riskier currencies.”

Let’s drill down into some of the data. Chinese exports fell 15% in April. Japan’s economy contracted 15% in the most recent quarter. Singapore’s exports are down 20% on an annualized basis. The South Korean economy is projected to shrink by 2% this year. The Central Bank of Thailand just cut its benchmark interest rate to an unbelievable 1%. The only bright spot economically is Taiwan, which is benefiting both from improved economic ties with China and a healthy current account surplus. I suppose everything is relative, as “developing Asian economies will grow 4.8 percent in 2009, even as the world economy contracts 1.3 percent” according to the International Monetary Fund.

The notion that the rally is not rooted in fundamentals is shared by the region’s Central Banks, which clearly realize that economic recovery will be much more difficult in the face of currency appreciation. One analyst argues that, “Until the signs of global economic recovery become more convincing, central banks will unlikely tolerate significant currency appreciation.” The Central Banks of South Korea, Taiwan, and Indonesia have already actively intervened to hold their currencies down, while Malaysia and Singapore (discussed in a Forexblog post last week) have also intervened for the sake of stability.

As a result, this rally could soon begin to lose steam. “A ‘correction’ in regional currencies is ‘appropriate’ following recent gains,” said one analyst. Another has called the rally “overdone.” Still, Central Banks and economic data pale in comparison to capital flows and risk/reward analysis. In short, these currencies (and other investments) will continue to find buyers for as long as there are those hungry for risk. Citigroup, whose “Asia-Pacific foreign-exchange volume may rise about 10 percent from the first quarter,” is bullish. A representative of the firm declared: “Fund managers are still ’sitting on lots and lots of cash’ so the pickup in volumes will continue.”

---US Trade Deficit Nears 10 Year Low; Good News for USD?---

Over the last year, declines in imports and commodity prices have contributed to a veritable collapse in the US trade imbalance. While the deficit increased to $27 Billion last month, the general trend is definitely still downwards.

Since the inception of the credit crisis, US imports have fallen by a record 40%, on an annualized basis. In March, import decreased 1 percent to $151.2 billion, the fewest since September 2004. Demand fell for industrial supplies such as natural gas and steel and for capital goods such as engines and machinery, reflecting the slump in U.S. business investment.” Lower commodity prices have also played a role on the imports side of the equation. In fact, if not for a slight uptick in energy prices, the deficit probably would have declined further this month.

Exports are also falling, but at a slower pace, such than the net effect is a more positive US balance of trade. “The 2.4% monthly fall in exports in March more than reversed the 1.5% rise the month before. But even that 2.4% drop compares well with the monthly declines of 6% plus that had become the norm since last September,” explains one economist. In other words, worldwide demand (as symbolized by US exports), is stabilizing.

Economists remain divided as to whether the trade deficit will continue to decline: “The low-hanging fruit has been achieved, and it will be difficult to narrow the trade deficit by much more going forward, especially if the vicious downturn in the economy seen in the fourth quarter and first quarter has begun to abate…..Once the economy begins to return to health in earnest (mainly a 2010 story), the trade deficit will likely begin to re-widen.” But a competing view expects “drooping consumer demand to weigh on imports and keep the trade deficit on a narrowing trend in the coming months,” in which case the deficit could fall to $350 Billion by the end of the year. Compared this to the record $788 Billion deficit of 2006!

While the balance of trade doesn’t figure directly into GDP (although it confusingly is incorporated into the expenditure method), a declining trade balance is generally reflective of a healthier economy. It implies that either exports are growing relatively faster than imports, and/or consumers are diverting more of their relative spending towards domestic consumption, both of which should contribute positively to GDP. Summarizes one economist, “If the current account did move towards balance, then it would allow the U. S. economy to probably grow at a more sustainable rate in the long term.”

The idea of sustainability (not in the environmental sense, unfortunately) is also connected to the US Dollar. Generally speaking, it is the Dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency which has enabled the US to run a trade imbalance almost continuously for the last 30 years. In other words, trade surplus economies are willing to accept Dollars because they can be stably and profitably invested in the US. In this regard, one commentator hit the nail right on the head: “When it comes to the U.S. trade gap, how many refrigerators the U.S. sells overseas is far less important than how many dollars the rest of the world wants.”

---CFD FX---

If you want to get involved in Forex trading and win you can, by getting a good solid Forex education and good Forex mentoring. In some cases you can find a Best Forex Brokerthat can assist you. If you are looking for a great Forex Broker, look at the CFD FX Report they have recently researched all the Forex Brokers and have come back with who they believe to be the best.
You can win and enjoy huge rewards for your effort, if you understand the challenge of Forex trading and what the reality really is. If you understand this, you're on your way to long term currency trading success.Also make sure that you have a good trading plan and stick to that trading plan.


Price of Trading Scenario & Falling Prices


If, on the other hand, you believe that the euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD.• You sell euro We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Ask price of 0.9880 and you decide to sell euro 100,000 at a Bid price of 0.9875.• The market moves in your favour The euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSD is now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.• Now you buy back your euro You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.• Your profit/loss is then Sell price-buy price x size of trade(0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 ProfitRemember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of euro 100,000, which is euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.Further ReadingTo see how you can trade the Forex market and benefit from our toolbox of information and live quotes, please proceed to the Forex Quick Start found under the Trading menu of SaxoTrader


European Forex Trading Preview


raders continued to punish the greenback following yesterday¡¯s unprecedented rate cut by the FOMC to lower its key interest rate to a target range of 0 to 0.25%. The dollar plunged to a fresh 13-year low against the yen at 87.16 and a new two-month low versus the euro, losing nearly 5-big figures for its largest one-day decline to 1.4437.With the Japanese currency trading at its highest level in over a decade, markets will remain vigilant against possibly BoJ intervention. Government officials have offered conflicting sentiments with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura expressing his desire for the Bank to Japan to take appropriate action to stem the currency¡¯s sharp gains. However, Japan¡¯s Finance Minister Nakagawa said intervening in the currency market was not a consideration at this point, suggesting the movements had not been too sharp. With trading volume likely to wind down over the coming holidays, we would not rule out the possibility for the Bank of Japan to step in during thinly traded markets to quickly move the dollar/yen pair back toward the 100-level.The dollar breached through several key support levels against the majors, suggesting the sell-off may pick up steam over the coming sessions. With thin markets expected over the coming weeks, we anticipate heightened volatility that could possibly send the euro toward 1.4865.


Important Forex Trading Terms


The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at (Bid) and the price you can buy currency at (Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.* PipsA pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading Forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.

---FOREX 101----

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970’s, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.


Marginal Trading


Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account..

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis


The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency’s future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country’s economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank’s interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.


Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX


FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.



CURRENCIES: Dollar Gains On Yen Amid Weak Japanese Data


The dollar fell against most major counterparts Friday, but gained ground versus the yen helped by better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data and weak Japanese economic data. The dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slipped to 84.551, down from 84.764 in North American trade late Thursday. But the dollar rose to 99.29 yen versus the Japanese currency, up from 98.55 yen. The factory sector contracted again in April, but the pace of decline slowed, according to the Institute for Supply Management index released Friday. Separately, consumer sentiment improved more than estimated earlier in April, according to the University of Michigan's latest survey. "Today's U.S. reports provided an array of upside surprises that have reinforced the view that the pace of GDP decline will moderate significantly into [the second quarter], while the [first-quarter] GDP figures now face a likely small upward bump," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, in a note. Earlier, Japanese reports had already put the yen under the pressure.
The Japanese government reported Friday that the country's core consumer-price index fell 0.1% in March, the first year-over-year decline since late 2007, raising concerns of a potential deflationary spiral. The nation's unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 4.8%, the highest level in four years. Traders said activity in foreign-exchange markets was subdued due to May Day holidays in Asia and continental Europe. London markets were open Friday but will be closed on Monday. The euro rose to $1.3286 versus the dollar in quiet trade, up from $1.3224 late Thursday. The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.4892 from $1.4783. Sterling extended gains after the purchasing-managers index for the U.K. manufacturing sector indicated that activity at factories continued to shrink in April, but at a slower-than-expected pace. The purchasing-managers index produced by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply rose to 42.9 in April from an upwardly revised 39.5 in March, continuing a recovery from a record low of 34.9 in February. The reading remains well below the neutral 50 mark, however. A reading of less than 50 indicates a majority of purchasing managers saw declining activity. A figure of more than 50 signals expansion

----Popular pairs in Forex----

Without a doubt the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as currency pairs, receive a great deal of attention by online Forex traders.

Each provides tradable patterns almost every day. Why some traders prefer trading one of these pairs versus the other is almost a matter of personal preference. Both pairs will reflect global sentiment regarding the dollar. As a result, it is usually the case that they will share the same trend patterns.

If world reaction to economic news is positive for the US economy, as a general rule, both the Euro and the GBP will tend to weaken. The chart below, for example, shows how the EUR/USD and the GBP have moved on the 1 hour pattern. Notice how similar the patterns are. The hour charts below show that both pairs provided a similar reaction to the Nov 4th economic release of the non-farm payroll report.

Clearly, it is hard to develop an argument of which pair is better to trade. But there is more that the online Forex trader can do with these pairs. online Forex traders can generate totally new trading opportunities by dropping the US dollar component of the pair and, thereby, creating a Cross-pair known as the EUR/GBP Before we take a look at the EUR/GBP chart, let’s try to understand what makes this pair a good source of trades, particularly, in the coming year.

The best way to understanding this Cross-pair is to realize that it generates a picture of the battle between two different economies- the EU vs. the British economy.
The EU countries experience different levels of economic growth and expectations of growth than that of Great Britain.

As a result, there is a constant flow back and forth of capital between these regions and this flow results in frequent range like behavior and price swings as can be seen in the day chart below.

----FOREX Is Tough But Potential Money-Making Opportunity----

Trading foreign currencies is a tough task; however, it is potentially a money-making opportunity for those who are educated and are knowledgeable about their investments.

Nevertheless, prior to choosing to participate in trading in the Forex market, you should:

* Cautiously judge the purpose of investment
* Your familiarity with risk factors

Forex is meant for the money you put aside and are prepared to loose. It might not be a wise idea to Forex trade to pay your regular bills.

Forex (Foreign Exchange market) is an inter-bank market that got a form in 1971; this was the period when the international trade transited from fixed exchange rates to floating rates. This transition paved way for the set of transactions between forex market brokers relating to the exchange of specific sums of money in a currency unit for the currency of some other country at an approved rate for any specified date.

During any trade day, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is decided basically by supply and demand – to which both parties will be in agreement. The price of a currency is mentioned in terms of one more currency.

The possibility of transactions in the international currency market is frequently increasing, which is due to growth of global trade and eradication of currency limits in many countries.

Online Forex is the one of the most innovative forex trading method of Foreign Exchange trading over the Internet. You can start trading with a basic account. Beware of margin trading because unless you are a careful market watcher trading with borrowed money can be risky.

The online forex trading method gives fast implementation of foreign exchange (Forex) trading through the Internet, with cutting edge software and well-organized trustworthy service guarantying an excellent trading experience.


Forex Main Tools Of Trade


In the forex market, the forex traders do their trading in online forex trading if they use Technical Analysis for finding trades. In the online trading forex there are a lot of technical analysis strategies that helps a forex trader in to forex trade to become a profitable trader. The Technical analysis monitors many indicators and also important price activity. If the forex trader needs some information the Technical analysis gets together large amounts of the data that the trader wants to include in his analysis and there by engineer some plans to go for good investments.

There are advantages of being a long term trader, it is mainly because a trader can isolate himself from the huge up and downs in the markets.

It is also a golden rule, (unwritten rule in forex) that a forex trader stops its losses and there by protect the capital. A forex trader is recommended to sell a little by little because if he sells the whole he might miss a huge profit when the currency value rises again as soon as he sells. But at the same time if he waits and then at the end of the day it comes down then the trader will feel guilty of not selling it at the right time.

With the development of technology, like the introduction of internet, mobile phones- it has become a possible to trade from anywhere in the world. A forex trader should select a good forex broker to perform well. To know more about the online forex brokers, the CFD Report is the one that forex traders should go for good selection.

---Forex Education - No Pain , No Gain---

Forex trading breakthroughs have a lot to do with your ability to get comfortable with being uncomfortable. Success usually comes from staying in the here and now, as well as accepting the fact that the market literally can do anything at anytime.

Many of your actions now may seem frustrating - such as designing a trading plan, sticking to just a few currency pairs, learning the intricacies of a strategy. It can seem downright overwhelming too. Just remember that each step you take in the process is adding value to your eventual trading success.

Why is it that so many people are always seeking the easy way out? I guarantee the amount of time searching will be less than just digging in and climbing that learning curve as fast as possible. Just imagine where you're going to be a year from now with a little bit of effort and determination!

Here are some thoughts to get you through that learning curve at lightning speed:

1. Hard Work Now Will Pay Off Later

All the work you do now mastering the process of trading through Forex education will pay off. Will it pay off today or tomorrow? Probably not, however, the small things done consistently in the right places will pay huge dividends later.

2. Every Experience Is A Lesson

Learn from both your mistakes and your success equally. As the question - what lesson am I meant to learn from this and journal it!

3. Focus On The Positive

Losing is a part of trading. Except it and keep your self-talk 100% positive. You will find that at the end of your Forex Journey you were your own worst enemy.

4. Choose The Difficult Action Over The Easy

Doing this will make you a stronger person, not just as a trader. You will find that your characteristics follow you in trading. When you grow as a person you will enhance your ability as a trader. Ask yourself - what action would a profitable trader take and then do it!

Remember this when you get frustrated by learning a new trading technique or in transitioning from demo to live trading -- if you are uncomfortable you're growing as a trader -- and take comfort in being uncomfortable.

Happy Trading!

---Forex Education Success Formula---

You read about the risk trading the Forex market every day. I talk to many successful traders and investors about the Forex market and it is mind blowing the fear this market produces amongst the conservative investors and daredevil attitude of the aggressive traders. Yes, it is a fact that 95% of traders lose money in Forex. I was taught that if you want a better answer then you have got to ask a better question and my question is why?

The answer is rather simple – most traders seek the path of least resistance and that will inevitably lead to failure. They failed because they didn’t take the time to gain a proper understanding and cheated their Forex Education!

Look, the market is neither for you nor against you. It makes profit opportunity equally available as the chance to take a loss. It will take money from you no matter your age, sex, experience or effort you put into your trading. The Forex market only rewards those who are correct and nothing else. It’s the old saying – work smart and not hard.

That leads to the next question; how can I be correct and smart? The answer is simple – through Forex Education. I have put together my Success Formula for trading the Forex market.

1. Strategy – it’s not a one size fits all world. Different strategies play to us based on our individual trading personalities. Understanding the rules and tools are critical when applying them to the market. This comes with time and experience. Don’t short change your learning curve. It will eventually lead you to profit.

2. Money Management – planning your risk will keep you in the game as you climb the learning curve as well as exploding your account once you’ve gained the experience and knowledge. Mastering this skill is not optional!

3. Self-Mastery - is having the discipline and emotional control to manage your strategy and money management plan. Knowing yourself will be skill that catapults you in to the elite 5%. It takes self-awareness training, accepting full responsibility for all of your trading actions and the ability to go beyond trading and finding your true personality. Talk to any successful trader and you will quickly see the control they exert not only in their trading, but in their lives in general.

Learning to trade Forex isn’t rocket science. Keeping things simple and working smarter will lead you to success in this market and the path forward can only b accomplished by investing in your Forex Education.

Happy Trading!

---Forex Education Tips ---

Have you ever been in a situation where you have evaluated the market, saw your strategy set-up perfectly and then just couldn’t pull the trigger? You become paralyzed, unable to move even though you know your high probability set-up has just triggered.

This fear is very real for many traders and very detrimental to your account. Fear is a powerful emotion, distorting fact from fiction and often creating an emotional response. Many experts tell you to trade without emotion, but is that really practical? We are indeed human. Remember the basis for the reaction is real, but the fear usually is not.

Fear blocks your ability to execute high probability trades and we must find strategies to manage our fear. With time comes experience and for traders it is the ultimate super hero for fear.

In the meantime, if you are struggling with fear-based execution challenges here are some simple tips to get you over the hump.

Embrace the Emotion

Acknowledge your emotions. If you find yourself analyzing a trade to the point of paralysis don’t try to ignore the emotions. Separate yourself from this river of negativity. Visualize yourself on the river bank as these torrents of emotions are flowing by. You will gain great awareness to the triggers and learn a lot about who you are as a trader.


Separate Fear from Fact

If you fear pulling the trigger because of loss (what if I am wrong?), that will stop you from enjoying the profits the market may make available to you at any given time. Don’t avoid the action that might cause the loss, but re-frame the problem as fear itself. You have evaluated the market, figured out your reward –to-risk ration and accepted your potential for loss through your stop-loss and money management plan. At this point loss is not the obstacle – fear is. There is no such thing as failure, only feedback and that will guide you to consistent and profitable trading.


Re-Think the Consequences

If your mind is off to the races with all sorts of possibilities what’s the worst that can happen if Murphy’s Law gets enacted during your trade? You have already addressed this in your trading plan. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Again fear is trumped and the only way it can be realized is if you didn’t follow your plan. Sticking to your plan is the clearest way to distinguish between a losing trade, which is just a part of business, and a bad trade which is a career killer!

Act in Spite of Fear

Feel the fear and do it anyway. Return to your mission statement or your “why?” statement. The reasons you trading should be big enough to overcome any possible obstacle your fear emotion can conjure up. Acknowledge the fear and do it anyway. You may not have a winning trade, but you will have executed your plan and over time probability will pay you back.

What is all comes down to is the intangibles of trading. Why do I and so many others drive home discipline-based Forex Education and Training approaches. You will never get rid of fear, but with practice you can turn it into a manageable obstacle and deploy it to your advantage.

Happy Trading!

--CSI Forex--

If you trade the Forex market you will inevitably encounter the proverbial down day (or worse yet a series of down days). By bad day I mean when you put on a trade and from 'pip' one just goes against you. Tell me, after this happened have you:

Chased the trade and ended up losing more?Revenge traded against the trend to recoup your losses and ended up losing more?Moved your predetermined stop and ended up losing more?Flipped your position and ended up losing more?
Have you noticed a theme??

Well, when I have a series of losing trades I go into CSI mode!
I actually conduct a crime scene investigation on my trading. First if I suffer a big lost I close my trade station immediately. Experience has taught me that I am susceptible to revenge trading. After a break (could be several minutes or several hours or several days) I take a look at my trade journal and look for clues as to why I suffered a draw down. Keeping a detailed journal allows me to reconstruct my trades to isolate potential errors.

If I am lucky I found that I had sound analysis and execution, but just hit some losers. More likely is that I got away from my style of trading or over-complicated my technique and entered into a bad trade.

Go back to the basics! It works every time!!

Forex and the Job

So you live in the western part of North America (I trade from Phoenix, Arizona) and you have discovered the power of trading the Forex market. Your passion runs so deep that almost instantly you are convinced that you want to do this full time. You get your requisite training and are ready to trade your live account. Just one problem … the job is keeps getting in the way!
Those of us who live in the Western part of the United States and Canada have a unique challenge when it comes to currency trading. Our time zones are not conducive to trading the European session and our window is small to trade the New York session before we must pack it up and hit the road. The Asian session is perfect timing, but not very active in the currencies rookies tend to focus on first.

I absolutely love trading the European session, but I am wasted the entire day from lack of sleep. I am very selective when I trade with London, because you ALWAYS want to be focused and on top of your game when trading!

Here are some simple recommendations to help you through your transition period.

1. Do Your Homework! This is valid with any trader, but for those of us who have a small window to trade peak hours need to be prepared to take advantage of any pips the market is offering up. This is really not a disadvantage. This can build and nurture a most profitable habit.

2. Go to Bed Earlier! It is very important to get your rest and trading in the Pacific Time zone requires an early wake up call to trade the London-New York overlap session. I awake 4:00 am pacific time to make sure I am awake and prepared when New York opens.

3. Develop a Solid Exercise Plan! I find when I am in decent condition I can get an additional 2 hours more of focused time out of my day. Those two hours I dedicate to making myself a better trader.

4. Find Your Trading Style! Synergize your trading style with your trading session. If you are like me and primarily trade from the 15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour charts the European and New York sessions are my bread and butter. I use the Asian session to do my homework. If you are a position trader a whole new set of synergies come into play...
..
5. Be confident in your analysis. When I first started seriously trading currencies and juggling the job I found I had done my homework, planned an entry only to miss it because it occurred while I was in the middle of my mid-morning meeting. I learned very quickly to get comfortable with entry orders.
As you can see from these simple examples that becoming successful in currency trading requires two key elements…
Persistence will allow you to climb the learning curve and learn from your mistakes!Change of mindset to not allow life to dictate the level of your currency trading success!

Happy Trading!!

Forex Management

This may be my quick version of forex money management, but there is nothing more important. As I have been told over and over again, any one can get into a currency trade, but those who are profitable forex traders know when to exit a trade.

This is for profits as well as loses!
I find that the best forex trades I put on are those trades where my emotions are not a factor in the currency trade to begin with. To do this there are some basic principals I follow regardless of the strategy or time period I am trading.

* I set a pip goal for the trade based on my trade plan and technicals. If you do not have a trade plan where you have outlined your currency trading goals and objectives then stop reading this blog and create one now!

* I never risk more than 5% of my account on any given trading opportunity. To calculate the amount I will risk I divide my trading account principal by 0.05 and then divide that by my stop loss (dictated by the strategy I employ) to give me the number of lots I will place on the forex trade. This is the number I am personally comfortable losing. Yes, I said losing! I always approach risk management in forex trading from a “what if I am wrong” point of view.

* I always trade with a stop loss and limit order! This takes the emotions right out of the equation. I have learned with experience to employ trailing stops and fine tuning of my technicals to lock in profit and provide ever increasing better entry and exit points. Over time I have been able to let more winners run and cut loses shorter than when I first began trading.

* Here is my forex money management “golden nugget!” If take pause after a draw down of 25% AND after a run up of 25%. During this 2-5 day period I trade in my demo account, practicing new strategies or reviewing the basics. This keeps me grounded when I am too down or too up.

These are my rules. By keeping a good forex trade journal you will be able to recognize your strengths and weaknesses, and employ them in your money management plan.

Trading Thoughts


Trade to be great and not just good.Trade to be profitableDon’t trade not to lose.Embrace the challenges of the day.Dismiss the distractions.Be decisive.Know your expected outcome before executing the trade.Don’t focus on the results.Focus on the execution.Take responsibility for the outcome.Be realistic and committed.Believe in yourself without doubt.Focus on the pips and not the balance.Become your own coach and cheering section.

Happy Trading!!

,Trust in Yourself

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.
Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.
Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

Become a successful

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.
As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!
We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.
I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.
I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.
Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.
Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.
In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.
Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.
You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.
Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.
Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Prediction for You

Here's my bold prediction for you in 2009!
You will break your trading resolutions by the end of JULY
.
* You will abandon your trading plan * You will fall into the same destructive trading patterns you resolved to change * Your account will earn the same or less than in 2008
I know this this sounds harsh, but statistically speaking, that's what will happen to most traders.
So, are you going to let this happen to you?

True, statistics cover populations and not individual traders. The fact is, its traders who are outside of th enorm and trade with focused discipline that really achieve their financial goals. When is now the time to re-focus with discipline and dedication and really commit yourself to your trading plan?

Today is MAY 22, 2009 and JULY is just around the corner.
Let this be your wake-up call!
Be honest with yourself and focus with the discipline of a seasoned trader on staying true to your trading plan or risk becoming a statistic!

Happy "Disciplined" Trading!!

BIG PLAYERS

I am typing this from my pc. It a bit of a mess now, the new house still needs a little work and I am not feeling well lately. Maybe its the change in climate.

This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.

What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.

So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.

These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.

Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.

Support and Resistance Indicator

Support and Resistance MT4 indicator - as the name implies this indicator (translates as support and resistance), it shows the level of support and resistance. He shows them on the schedule, providing quick help when you want to set the levels of stop-loss and take-profit, or if you want to see the next goal of the market. This indicator uses the standard indicator MetaTrader Fractals (fractals, based on the method of Bill Williams), and no change of input parameters.
Picture speaks for itself. Use levels are marked with blue dots, as the support and the levels are marked by red dots, as the resistance. And do not forget that the support could be as follows in its resistance of Perforation and - on the contrary.

DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITION

veraticsIt is not looking particularly well for GBPUSD. In the other hand, EURUSD and AUDUSD is looking good for a long term trade. I am taking the long position. It may take a very long time to profit but looking at the chart from a technical view, EURUSD and AUDUSD is in a good position for a long term trading.

I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.

It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.

Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.

Good luck to us all.

THE SYSTEM

After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.

What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.

You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?

You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.

I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.

TRADING MOVING AVERAGE

At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.

RULES OF THE GAME

1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.

2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.

3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.

4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.

Last advise.

Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.